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Gold Futures Technical Analysis - August 16, 2023, Maharishi Capital

In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, precious metals often emerge as havens of stability during times of economic uncertainty. As the world navigates through concerns about the global economy, gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, has been making waves in the futures market. In this update, we delve into the technical analysis of gold futures, exploring the patterns and trends that could shape its trajectory in the coming days.

Market Overview

On August 16, 2023, gold futures are attracting attention as they trade higher. Investors, driven by their quest for safe-haven assets, have propelled the benchmark gold contract for December delivery up by 0.7%, valuing it at $1,952.60 per ounce. This rise reflects the sentiment that in a world of economic uncertainty, gold offers a stable investment option.

Technical Analysis - Pattern Recognition

Upon closer examination of the technical charts, a distinctive pattern emerges in the form of a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders. This pattern carries significant implications, primarily suggesting a potential reversal of the prevailing trend and indicating the possibility of an upward movement in gold prices.

The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is characterized by a head, two shoulders, and a neckline. In this context, the neckline is a crucial point of interest, situated at the $1,900 per ounce mark. Should gold manage to breach this level, it could pave the way for a rally towards the subsequent resistance level at $1,980 per ounce.

Factors at Play

While the technical charts present a promising outlook, it's essential to consider the broader market factors that could influence gold's trajectory in the near term.

1. Interest Rates: The anticipated rise in interest rates looms as a potential impediment to gold's ascent. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by 75 basis points during its upcoming meeting in July. This move could potentially diminish the allure of gold for investors, given its status as a non-interest-bearing asset.

2. US Dollar Strength: The recent upswing in the US dollar's value presents another factor to watch. A stronger dollar can render gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies, potentially curbing its demand.

Conclusion and Trading Strategy

In conclusion, the technical charts suggest a bullish sentiment in the gold futures market, with the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern pointing towards potential price increases. However, investors need to remain vigilant about the market dynamics that could sway gold's fortunes.

Key Levels to Watch:

Support: $1,900 per ounce

Resistance: $1,950 per ounce, $1,980 per ounce

Trend: Bullish

Trading Strategy:

Bullish Strategy: For those inclined towards a bullish stance on gold, a prudent approach could involve considering a buy order around the support level of $1,900 per ounce. If the price manages to break through the resistance at $1,950 per ounce, it could signal a continuation of the ongoing uptrend.

Bearish Strategy: Investors with a bearish perspective could explore the possibility of initiating a sell order as the price approaches the resistance level of $1,950 per ounce. Additionally, a break below the support level at $1,900 per ounce could signify a reversal of the current uptrend.

As with any investment, it's crucial to make decisions based on a well-rounded understanding of the market, incorporating both technical indicators and fundamental factors. By keeping a keen eye on the evolving landscape and embracing a cautious yet strategic approach, investors can navigate the complex world of gold futures with greater confidence.


The views and opinions stated by the author, or any people named in this article, are for informational purposes only and do not establish financial, investment, or other advice. Investing or trading in stocks, currency, commodity or any other financial instrument comes with a risk of financial loss.


Meghna Mishra

Sr. Research Analyst

Maharishi Capital

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